Revisiting older drivers' risks of at-fault motor vehicle collisions in Japan.

BACKGROUND: In Japan, older drivers have been encouraged to surrender their driving licenses for traffic safety despite the potential adverse social and health outcomes of driving cessation. We reconsidered such policies and social pressure by comparing the risk of at-fault motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) across the age groups of drivers. METHODS: Using the national data of police-reported MVCs that occurred between 2016 and 2020, we examined the number of at-fault MVCs per licensed driver (MVC rate) and the number of fatally and non-fatally injured persons per at-fault MVC by the sex and age groups of at-fault drivers. RESULTS: The MVC rate of older drivers was higher than that of middle-aged drivers but lower than that of young drivers. The number of injured persons among the collided counterparts (collided car occupants, motorcyclists, bicyclists, and pedestrians) per MVC caused by older drivers was not greater than that by drivers in other age groups. In fatal MVCs caused by older drivers, drivers themselves or their passengers tend to be killed rather than their collided counterparts. Overall, the results were mostly consistent between male and female drivers. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of at-fault MVCs increased with the advancing age of drivers after middle age; however, this risk among older drivers did not exceed that among young drivers, without posing a high risk of injuries to their collided counterparts.

Association between mandatory cognitive testing for license renewal and motor vehicle collisions and road injuries.

BACKGROUND: We examined whether the policy amendment from March 2017 for a cognitive screening test for older drivers at driver's license renewal was associated with the decreased risk of motor vehicle collisions for drivers and the increased risk of injuries for pedestrians and cyclists among older people. METHODS: This was a controlled interrupted time-series study. We used police-reported data on the number of collisions as drivers and injuries as pedestrians and cyclists among people aged 70 years or older in Japan from July 2012 to December 2019. As the outcome measures, we used the ratio of the monthly number of collisions per population among drivers of three groups aged 75 years or older (75-79, 80-84, and ≥85 years), who were targeted or exposed by the policy, to that among drivers aged 70 to 74 years, who were unaffected or unexposed by the policy and would serve as controls. The ratio of pedestrian and cyclist injuries was also calculated, as previous studies have shown a concomitant increase in these injuries after the introduction of cognitive screening for driver's licenses. RESULTS: During the study period, there were 602,885 collisions as drivers and 196,889 injuries as pedestrians and cyclists among people aged 70 years or older. After the policy amendment in March 2017, collisions decreased among male drivers, and injuries increased among some age subgroups in both sexes. Cumulative estimated changes in the numbers of collisions and injuries from March 2017 to December 2019 were -3670 (95% confidence interval: -5125, -2104) and 959 (95% confidence interval: 24, 1834), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Following the policy amendment, there was a decrease in motor vehicle collisions as drivers and an increase in road injuries as pedestrians and cyclists among older people.

Trend in Alcohol-related Crashes Before and After the Introduction of Mandatory Breath Testing Among Commercial Truck Drivers.

BACKGROUND: Since 2011, commercial truck drivers have been required to take alcohol breath tests at the beginning and end of their working hours due to their employers' legal obligations. However, non-commercial truck drivers are not required to do so. We examined whether alcohol-related crashes had decreased after 2011 among commercial truck drivers. METHODS: Using police data, we conducted a joinpoint regression analysis to examine the trend in the proportion of alcohol-related crashes from 1995 through 2020 caused by commercial truck drivers (who were subjected to alcohol breath testing) and non-commercial truck drivers (who were not subjected to testing). The annual percentage change in this trend was also estimated. RESULTS: During the 26-year study period, truck drivers caused 1,846,321 at-fault crashes, and 0.4% of the crashes involved intoxicated driving. A significant decreasing trend in the proportion of alcohol-related crashes was identified among both commercial and non-commercial truck drivers in the 2000s, during which several legal amendments were made against drunk driving. The annual percentage change was -13.5% from 2001 to 2012 among commercial truck drivers, and -14.9% from 2001 to 2011 among non-commercial truck drivers. No decreasing trend was observed afterwards, despite the introduction of mandatory alcohol breath testing in 2011. CONCLUSION: The effect of mandatory alcohol breath testing on reducing alcohol-related crashes among commercial truck drivers was not evident.

10 city analysis of child passenger helmet use.

INTRODUCTION: Road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death in children over age five. Most of these deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. Vulnerable road users, such as motorcyclists and their passengers, are at higher risk. Helmets have significantly decreased morbidity and mortality for motorcyclists; however, they are often unused. The second phase of the Bloomberg Philanthropies Initiative for Global Road Safety was launched in 2015 to improve road safety in 10 cities. This study focuses on child passenger helmet use data from that study to understand the prevalence of helmet use and factors that are associated with helmet use. METHODS: The 10 cities selected were Accra, Addis Ababa, Bandung, Bangkok, Bogota, Fortaleza, Ho Chi Minh City, Mumbai, Sao Paulo, and Shanghai. Eight rounds of roadside observational data were collected from February 2015 to April 2019. Observers noted correct child motorcycle passenger helmet use and other site observations including weather patterns, traffic volume, and road surface conditions. A multivariable Poisson regression model was used to examine correct helmet use trends over time. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted for correct child passenger helmet use in all cities controlling for weather, observation time, number of passengers, and driver's correct helmet use. RESULTS: This dataset contained 99,846 motorcycle child passenger observations across the 10 cities. The highest prevalence of correct child passenger helmet use was in Sao Paulo at 97.33%. Six cities had under 25% correct helmet use for child passengers. Examining helmet use over time, only five cities had a significant increase, four cities had no change, and Ho Chi Minh City demonstrated a decrease. In the multivariable regression model, child passengers had higher odds of wearing helmets in adverse weather conditions, early mornings, if the driver wore a helmet, and if there were fewer passengers. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of correct child passenger helmet utilization shows large variation globally and is concerningly low overall. Enhanced enforcement in combination with media campaigns may have contributed to increasing helmet use prevalence over time. Further research is needed to understand reasons for low child passenger helmet use in most cities.

Effectiveness of child burn prevention campaigns in Mongolia.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of child burn prevention campaigns on medically attended burn injuries in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. METHODS: We conducted an interrupted time-series analysis using data on patients aged<5 years who were treated for burn injuries at the Emergency Department of the National Trauma and Orthopaedic Center from January 2009 to December 2018. Since the campaigns focused on scald prevention, we calculated the monthly rate of scald injuries per 10 000 children aged<5 years by sex and injury severity, regressing it on the number of months after January 2009 (the beginning of the study), after June 2014 (the first nationwide campaign started) and after January 2017 (the second facility-based campaign started). RESULTS: During the 10-year study period, there were 23 459 patients, of whom 18 433 (79%) were treated for scald injuries, including 6920 severe injuries. The monthly rate of overall scald injuries started to decrease after the first campaign, with a relative change of -32% at the end of the intervention. However, the rate started increasing before the initiation of the second campaign; this trend continued during and after the campaign. The rate of severe scald injuries did not show any significant changes throughout the study period. The results were consistent for both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: The nationwide burn prevention campaign was effective in reducing non-severe burn injuries among young children. Since the campaign was primarily aimed at increasing public awareness of child burn injury risks, further interventions should be considered with passive measures to prevent severe burn injuries.

Effect of annual road safety publicity and enforcement campaign on road fatalities in Japan: a time series study from 1949 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: In 1948, Japan started a short-term publicity and enforcement campaign for traffic safety nationwide, and since 1952, the campaign has been conducted twice a year for 10 days. We aimed to quantify the short-term effect of the spring sessions of the campaign, which were conducted in different months in different years, on road fatalities in Japan using data from 1949 to 2019. METHODS: We obtained national police data on the monthly number of road deaths and conducted a time series regression analysis with three steps: smoothing the long-term patterns with the natural cubic spline function, calculating the ratio of the monthly number of deaths to the corresponding smoothed value, and regressing the ratio on the number of months from January 1949 and the binary variable for the conduct of spring sessions. We repeated the analysis for four subperiods (1949-1964, 1965-1989, 1990-2004 and 2005-2019). RESULTS: During the study period, there were 632577 road deaths. Our analysis revealed that the spring sessions changed the number of deaths per day by -2.5% (95% CI -4.1% to -0.9%) in the months when they were conducted. In the four subperiods, the estimated changes were -4.5% (95% CI -8.9% to -0.1%), -2.6% (95% CI -5.0% to -0.1%), -0.1% (95% CI -2.9 to 2.7) and -3.5% (95% CI -7.9 to 0.9). CONCLUSIONS: Road fatalities were reduced in the months when the spring sessions of the campaign were conducted, but the reduction was modest. The effect might have been somewhat larger until 1964, when Japan was a middle-income country.

Reduced Road Injuries While Commuting Due to Heavy Snowfall and Ensuing Modal Shifts Among Junior High School Students in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Modal shifts in transport may reduce overall road injuries. Cyclist junior high school students are at a high risk of road injuries while commuting in Japan, and injuries among junior high school students could be reduced if the cyclists switch to other transport modes. METHODS: We estimated the change in the incidence of road deaths and serious injuries while commuting in months with heavy snowfall, when cyclists are likely to switch to other transport modes. Using police data on the monthly number of road injuries while commuting among junior high school students in Japan between 2004 and 2013 and corresponding population statistics and snowfall data, we calculated the monthly injury rate (number of deaths and serious injuries divided by population) at the prefecture level. We conducted Poisson regression analysis to estimate the change in the rate in months with a snowfall of ≥100 cm, compared to months without snowfall. RESULTS: A total of 3,164 deaths and serious injuries occurred during 2004 to 2013. The injury rate among cyclists was almost zero in months with a snowfall of ≥100 cm. That among cyclists and pedestrians in these months was reduced by 68% (95% confidence interval, 43-82%). CONCLUSION: In months with heavy snowfall, road injuries while commuting were reduced due to the near-elimination of cycling injuries among junior high school students in Japan. Switching from cycling to other transport modes would reduce overall road injuries among this population, and inducing modal shifts can be an important tool for road safety.

Japan's Slow Response to Improve Access to Inpatient Care for COVID-19 Patients.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has exposed various weaknesses in national healthcare systems across the globe. In Japan, this includes the inability to promptly mobilize the resources needed to provide inpatient care in response to the rapidly increasing number of patients. Combined with unclear entry points to healthcare, particularly in emergency cases, this has led to a situation in which access to healthcare is rapidly deteriorating. This study examined problems in Japan's healthcare delivery system. While Japan's healthcare resources (e.g., hospital beds and medical personnel) are comparable to those found in other high-income countries, progress has been slow in securing beds for COVID-19 patients. In addition, the number of beds has only recently reached the levels seen in Western countries. Factors related to slow resource allocation include dispersed existing medical resources (mainly in the private sector), the lack of collaboration mechanisms among private-dominant healthcare providers and public health agencies, an inadequate legal framework for resource mobilization, the insufficient quantification of existing resources, and undesignated entry points to healthcare systems. To better prepare for future disasters, including the next wave of COVID-19, Japan urgently needs to restructure its legal framework to promptly mobilize resources, accurately quantify existing resources, introduce coordination mechanisms with functional differentiations among all community stakeholders, and clearly designate entry points to healthcare.

COVID-19 lockdown and fatal motor vehicle collisions due to speed-related traffic violations in Japan: a time-series study.

Between March and May 2020, Japan experienced a lockdown due to the COVID-19 crisis. Empty roads possibly triggered speed-related traffic violations that caused fatal motor vehicle collisions (MVCs). Using police data on the monthly number of fatal MVCs between January 2010 and February 2020 in which motor vehicle drivers were at fault, we forecasted the numbers of fatal MVCs due to the speed-related violations during the lockdown and compared these with those observed. We also compared the observed to forecasted using the ratio of the number of speed-related fatal MVCs to that of non-speed related fatal MVCs. The observed numbers of speed-related fatal MVCs were within the 95% CIs of the forecasted numbers. The observed ratio was higher than the forecasted ratio in April (p=0.016). In the second month of the lockdown, drivers were more likely to commit speed-related violations that caused fatal MVCs than before the lockdown.

Increased traffic injuries among older unprotected road users following the introduction of an age-based cognitive test to the driver's license renewal procedure in Japan.

BACKGROUND: To deal with the increasing number of motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) among older drivers, a cognitive test has been introduced to a license renewal procedure for drivers aged ≥75 years since June 2009. This might have prompted the reduction or cessation of driving by older drivers. We therefore examined whether older drivers' chance of experiencing MVCs as unprotected road users has increased after the test was introduced. METHODS: Using police-reported national data on MVCs from January 2005 through December 2016, we calculated the monthly injury rates (including deaths, severe injuries, and minor injuries) among unprotected road users (bicyclists and pedestrians) by sex and age group (70-74, 75-79, 80-84, and ≥85 years). The ratios of the injury rates of unprotected road users in the three oldest age groups (who were subjected to the test) to those aged 70-74 years (not subjected to the test) were also calculated. Then, we conducted an interrupted time-series analysis based on the injury rate ratios to control for extraneous factors affecting MVCs over the study period. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in traffic injuries of unprotected road users at the time the test was introduced among females aged 75-84 years, and at a later time among males aged ≥80 years and females aged ≥85 years. CONCLUSION: Licensing policies for older drivers should be rigorously evaluated, taking into account the safety of older unprotected road users, and should be balanced against it.

Effectiveness of an interprofessional education program using team-based learning for medical students: A randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: To respond to increasingly complicated healthcare needs in primary care settings, all health and medical welfare professionals are required to collaborate with multiprofessionals, namely via "interprofessional work" (IPW). Interprofessional education (IPE) is essential for effective IPW, especially for medical students. This study aimed to determine whether participation in IPE can increase medical students' readiness for interprofessional learning. METHOD: We examined the difference in readiness of medical students for interprofessional learning before and after an IPE program that used team-based learning (TBL). Each student was assigned to either a uniprofessional or multiprofessional group. They were evaluated using the Japanese version of the Readiness for Interprofessional Learning Scale (RIPLS). Program participants were 126 second-year medical students and 18 students of healthcare professions other than medical doctor who participated in a combined IPE program conducted by two universities. Medical students were allocated to 12 uniprofessional and nine multiprofessional groups at random. RESULTS: One hundred and twelve medical students who replied to the questionnaire both before and after the program (valid response rate, 88.9%) were eligible for analysis. Of these, 42 were assigned to uniprofessional groups and 70 to multiprofessional groups. After the program, the RIPLS total score increased to a greater extent in the multiprofessional groups than in the uniprofessional groups (difference 3.17, 95% confidence interval 0.47-5.88, P = .022). Multiple regression analysis showed the same result. CONCLUSIONS: Learning in multiprofessional groups increased medical students' readiness for interprofessional learning in an IPE program using TBL.

Effect of a cognitive test at license renewal for older drivers on their crash risk in Japan.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of adding a cognitive test to a license renewal procedure for drivers aged 75 years or older in reducing their motor vehicle collisions (MVCs). The test has been obligatory since June 2009. METHODS: Using monthly police-reported national data on MVCs from January 2005 through December 2016, we calculated the rates of MVCs per licensed driver-year by sex and age group (70-74, 75-79, 80-84 and 85 years or older) for each month together with the ratios of MVC rates of drivers in the three oldest age groups (which are subject to the test) to those of the 70-74 years group (not subject to the test) to control for extraneous factors affecting MVCs over the study period. Then, we conducted an interrupted time-series analysis by regressing the rate ratio stratified by sex and age group on the number of months from January 2005, June 2009 (when the cognitive test was introduced to a license renewal procedure) and June 2012 (when all drivers subject to the test have taken it at least once). RESULTS: The rates showed a longitudinal decrease in male and female drivers over the study period without any apparent effects of the introduction of the cognitive test while no significant decrease was observed in the rate ratios after the introduction of the cognitive test. CONCLUSIONS: There were no clear safety benefits of the cognitive test for drivers aged 75 years or older to reduce their MVCs.

Forecasting global road traffic injury mortality for 2030.

OBJECTIVE: To forecast the number and rate of deaths from road traffic injuries (RTI) in the world in 2030. METHODS: This study was a secondary analysis of annual country-level data of RTI mortality rates for 1990-2017 in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study, population projection for 2030, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita for 1990-2030 and average years of schooling among people aged 15 years+ for 1990-2030. We developed up to 6884 combinations of forecasting models for each subgroup stratified by country, sex and mode of transport using linear and squared year, GDP per capita and average years of schooling as potential predictors. We conducted a fixed-size, rolling window out-of-sample forecast to choose the best combination for each subgroup. In the validation, we used the data for 1990-2002, 1991-2003 and 1992-2004 (fit periods) to forecast mortality rates in 2015, 2016 and 2017 (test periods), respectively. We applied the selected combination of models to the data for 1990-2017 to forecast the mortality rate in 2030 for each subgroup. To forecast the number of deaths, we multiplied the forecasted mortality rates by the corresponding population projection. RESULTS: During the test periods, the selected combination of models produced the number of deaths that is higher than that estimated in the GBD Study by 5.1% collectively. Our model resulted in 1.225 million deaths and 14.3 deaths per 100 000 population in 2030, which were 1% and 12% less than those for 2017 in the GBD Study, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The world needs to accelerate its efforts towards achieving the Decade of Action for Road Safety goal and the Sustainable Development Goals target.

Area-Wide Traffic-Calming Zone 30 Policy of Japan and Incidence of Road Traffic Injuries Among Cyclists and Pedestrians.

Objectives. To quantify the impact of the "Zone 30" policy introduced in September 2011 on the incidence of cyclist and pedestrian injuries in Japan.Methods. This was an interrupted time-series study. We used the data of cyclist and pedestrian injuries recorded by the Japanese police between 2005 and 2016. We evaluated the monthly number of deaths and serious injuries per person-time on narrow roads (width < 5.5 m, subjected to the policy) compared with that on wide roads (≥ 5.5 m) to control for secular trends. We regressed the injury rate ratio on 2 predictors: the numbers of months after January 2005 and after September 2011. Using the regression results, we estimated the number of deaths and serious injuries prevented.Results. There were 266 939 deaths and serious injuries. By 2016, the cumulative changes in the rate ratio spanned from -0.26 to -0.046, depending on sex and age, and an estimated number of 1704 (95% confidence interval = 1293, 2198) injuries were prevented.Conclusions. The policy had a large preventive impact on cyclist and pedestrian deaths and serious injuries at the national level.

Regional disparities in road traffic injury rates involving elementary and junior high school children while commuting among Japan's 47 prefectures between 2004 and 2013.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the extent and patterns of regional disparities of road traffic injury rates involving elementary and junior high school children while commuting among Japan's 47 prefectures. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional ecological study using the national police data for 2004-2013 on the number of children who were killed or seriously injured (KSI) in traffic collisions stratified by prefecture, grade, mode of transport, and purpose of trip (commuting or non-commuting). We calculated stratified KSI rates by dividing the number of KSI cases by the corresponding number of children and presented these rates for the 47 prefectures. Also, for pedestrian elementary school children and cyclist junior high school children, we regressed the KSI rates while commuting by prefecture on the non-commuting KSI rates and the proportion of people who live in the urban, densely inhabited districts. RESULTS: There were 6463 KSI cases while commuting. The ratios of the highest KSI rate to the lowest KSI rate among prefectures were 12, 30, and 58 for pedestrian elementary school children and pedestrian and cyclist junior high school children, respectively. The non-commuting KSI rates and the proportion of those living in densely inhabited districts were positively and inversely associated with the commuting KSI rates, respectively. The analysis of the residuals of the regression models did not identify prefectures with significantly higher or lower KSI rates while commuting than others. CONCLUSIONS: There were large inter-prefecture disparities in the KSI rates while commuting, and the disparity was especially large among cyclist junior high school children.

The G7 presidency and universal health coverage, Japan's contribution.

PROBLEM: If universal health coverage (UHC) is to be achieved globally, it needs sustained promotion and political awareness and support. APPROACH: During its presidency of the Group of Seven (G7) industrialized nations in 2016, Japan aimed to raise the issue of UHC to the top of the global health agenda. LOCAL SETTING: Japan has promoted a health agenda at all of the G7 summits since 2000 that it has hosted. Human security has been the core foundation of Japan's foreign diplomacy for several decades and, consequently, there was no apparent opposition within Japan to the inclusion of UHC on the agenda of the summit in 2016. Other G7 governments appeared keen to promote such coverage. RELEVANT CHANGES: Since the 2016 summit, UHC has remained a central agenda item for the United Nations and World Health Organization, even though the leaders of both these global organizations have changed. In 2017, Japan hosted the UHC Forum in Tokyo. The participants, who were the heads of United Nations agencies, politicians and other decision-makers from all over the world, showed their continued commitment towards UHC. LESSONS LEARNT: In the raising of awareness of an item on the global health agenda, high-level champions are critical. Although they may be very diverse, all relevant stakeholders need to be connected and allowed to discuss policies with each other. Having too many allies can, however, lead to policy fragmentation, especially when there is commitment from the highest echelons within each country.